Most years (with some exceptions) I forecast predictions in January about what the approaching twelve months will convey for self-driving vehicles. On the finish of the yr, I consider these predictions.
My predictions from January 2020 held up very nicely at excessive confidence ranges, after which fell aside at low confidence ranges. Particularly, I wildly overestimated progress on driverless supply and on worldwide autonomy.
✔ No Degree 5 self-driving vehicles will probably be deployed anyplace on the planet.
✔ Degree 4 driverless autos, with out a security operator, will stay publicly out there, someplace on the planet.
✔ No “self-driving-only” public highway will exist within the U.S.
✔ Tesla will stay the trade chief in Superior Driver Help Programs. [DS — I don’t have a good objective source of truth for this. Arguably GM Super Cruise or Comma AI have surpassed Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta. But Telsa FSD Beta still seems to me like the standard again which everyone else compares themselves.]
✔ An autonomy firm will probably be acquired for a minimum of $100 million. [ DS — A whole bunch of lidar companies were “acquired” by SPACs in 2021. That is not what I had in mind when I made this prediction, but I guess it counts.]
✔ Degree 4 autonomous autos, with or with out a security operator, will stay publicly out there in China.
✔ C++ will stay the dominant programming language for autonomous autos.
✔ A lidar-equipped automobile will probably be out there on the market to most of the people. [DS — Some have been announced, but I don’t think any are actually for sale yet. Maybe outside the US?] [Update: Audi A8]
✔ My mother and father is not going to journey in an autonomous automobile (besides at Voyage or anyplace else I’d work).
✔ Tesla is not going to launch a robotaxi service.
✘ Totally driverless low-speed autos will transport prospects (not essentially most of the people).
✔ Waymo will broaden its public driverless transportation service past Phoenix. [DS — I count Waymo’s free transportation of pre-screened beta customers in San Francisco. Although this is not what I envisioned when I made the prediction.]
✘ A Chinese language firm will supply self-driving service, with or with out a security operator, to the general public, exterior of China.
✔ A self-driving Class 8 truck will make a completely driverless journey on a public freeway. [DS — TuSimple just barely slid under the wire!]
✔ Aerial drone supply will probably be out there to most of the people someplace. [DS — I think the Zipline-Walmart partnership counts.]
✔ Tesla will stay the world’s most precious automaker.
✘ Totally driverless grocery supply will probably be out there someplace within the US.
✘ Tesla Full-Self Driving will supply Degree 3 (driver consideration not essential till requested by the automobile) performance someplace on the planet.
✘ A member of the general public will die in a collision involving a Degree 4 autonomous automobile (together with if the autonomous automobile just isn’t at-fault).
✘ An organization apart from Waymo will supply driverless service to most of the people, someplace within the US.
✘ An organization will deploy driverless autos for last-mile supply.
✘ Degree 4 self-driving, with or with out a security operator, will probably be out there to the general public someplace in Europe.
✘ A Degree 3 automobile will probably be supplied on the market to the general public, by an organization aside from Tesla.
✘ The US requires driver-monitoring programs in new autos.
✘ The trade coalesces round a security commonplace for driverless autos.
✘ Self-driving service will probably be out there to most of the people, with or with out a security operator, in India.